* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942016 09/09/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 34 44 57 66 71 70 70 69 69 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 34 44 57 66 71 70 70 69 69 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 26 31 40 49 55 57 55 52 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 15 13 15 9 4 10 16 21 22 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -8 -7 -4 -2 -1 0 3 2 6 6 7 SHEAR DIR 20 39 43 54 27 19 138 226 211 219 212 220 211 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.7 27.3 27.5 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 141 142 143 140 133 129 132 139 136 137 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 142 140 140 139 135 128 126 129 134 125 123 129 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 75 77 76 76 75 71 73 70 66 62 62 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 16 18 18 17 18 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 88 92 97 97 96 90 69 53 58 56 67 59 57 200 MB DIV 105 93 86 111 125 85 109 48 55 18 61 48 57 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -4 -2 -9 -4 0 -2 0 1 4 11 17 LAND (KM) 1816 1689 1596 1531 1487 1476 1571 1664 1712 1632 1474 1338 1324 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.7 12.1 13.1 14.8 16.9 19.0 20.1 20.5 20.8 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 36.2 37.6 38.7 39.6 40.4 41.4 42.0 43.3 45.9 49.2 51.6 53.2 53.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 9 7 8 10 14 16 16 9 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 25 28 29 27 23 17 21 19 18 18 27 50 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 24. 37. 46. 51. 50. 50. 49. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.0 36.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942016 INVEST 09/09/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 34.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 43.7% 20.1% 5.0% 0.0% 24.5% 39.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 22.4% 6.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 1.5% Consensus: 1.8% 22.0% 8.7% 1.7% 0.0% 8.3% 13.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942016 INVEST 09/09/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942016 INVEST 09/09/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 26 30 34 44 57 66 71 70 70 69 69 18HR AGO 20 19 23 27 31 41 54 63 68 67 67 66 66 12HR AGO 20 17 16 20 24 34 47 56 61 60 60 59 59 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT