* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942016 06/19/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 34 34 33 35 36 38 39 41 42 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 31 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 19 16 12 6 12 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 238 238 246 264 297 336 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 153 151 147 144 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 143 138 135 131 127 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 10 9 8 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 72 72 72 70 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -3 -6 -6 -13 -22 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 6 35 46 26 27 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 0 0 -5 -4 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 199 159 95 56 16 -40 -128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 4 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 25 22 18 10 12 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.3 94.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942016 INVEST 06/19/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.54 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.19 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.68 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.73 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 31.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.90 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 15.5% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 15.7% Logistic: 1.8% 10.9% 4.9% 1.1% 0.0% 1.8% 8.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 2.3% 9.4% 5.1% 0.4% 0.0% 3.4% 8.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942016 INVEST 06/19/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942016 INVEST 06/19/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 32 27 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 17 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT