* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942016 06/18/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 28 32 37 41 45 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 26 26 33 38 42 45 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 19 18 17 19 24 26 31 34 37 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 26 26 22 20 15 7 4 4 10 9 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 2 0 -1 -3 -3 4 3 2 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 254 242 250 254 244 268 278 346 357 64 63 82 83 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.4 26.8 24.1 24.1 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 161 161 160 157 148 144 145 144 123 100 100 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 149 148 148 145 135 133 137 137 116 93 94 95 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 7 8 9 9 9 9 7 5 2 1 700-500 MB RH 65 69 71 70 70 72 70 69 64 62 56 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 10 10 8 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 14 12 5 -3 -13 -20 -2 -22 -18 -33 -53 -40 200 MB DIV 29 42 30 16 5 39 19 13 -7 -18 -11 -12 -26 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -15 -15 -1 -9 -2 -4 2 5 -2 -1 6 LAND (KM) 82 155 195 235 211 62 -91 -362 -85 188 235 423 688 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.5 20.9 21.7 21.9 21.6 21.3 21.0 20.8 20.4 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 91.4 92.3 93.0 93.9 94.8 96.6 98.7 101.3 104.4 107.4 110.3 113.1 116.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 9 11 14 14 14 14 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 33 21 21 24 26 25 4 0 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 12. 17. 21. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.7 91.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942016 INVEST 06/18/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.22 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.65 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.89 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 23.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 24.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 13.8% 6.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.9% 4.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 4.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.3% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942016 INVEST 06/18/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942016 INVEST 06/18/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 21 22 23 24 26 26 33 38 42 45 18HR AGO 20 19 20 20 21 22 23 25 25 32 37 41 44 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 17 18 19 21 21 28 33 37 40 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT