* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942016 06/18/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 23 23 25 27 28 29 31 37 41 44 V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 25 26 27 29 27 27 27 33 37 40 V (KT) LGEM 20 23 23 22 22 20 18 20 25 26 31 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 27 27 22 23 12 10 6 7 5 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -5 -1 3 1 -2 0 -5 4 1 5 3 0 SHEAR DIR 275 259 248 258 266 249 285 279 326 2 62 62 79 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.5 27.3 24.1 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 157 161 160 153 145 143 145 145 129 100 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 142 143 147 148 140 132 131 135 136 120 94 92 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 8 7 9 7 11 9 11 6 5 1 700-500 MB RH 64 64 68 69 69 73 71 71 70 64 60 55 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 9 10 9 8 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -6 13 9 1 0 -27 -23 -24 -22 -20 -31 -45 200 MB DIV 14 15 31 36 20 16 21 37 -3 6 -19 0 -27 700-850 TADV -9 0 -5 -18 -15 2 -8 -5 -2 -4 7 -4 6 LAND (KM) -11 76 154 211 259 207 92 -113 -369 -112 154 188 402 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.8 22.4 22.6 22.4 21.9 21.6 21.2 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 90.5 91.3 92.0 92.6 93.4 95.2 96.9 99.0 101.5 104.3 107.1 110.0 113.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 9 9 9 11 13 13 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 19 33 21 20 23 28 28 5 0 9 12 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 17. 21. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.6 90.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942016 INVEST 06/18/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.86 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 19.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 53.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 9.9% 4.1% 1.1% 0.0% 1.0% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942016 INVEST 06/18/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942016 INVEST 06/18/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 24 25 26 27 29 27 27 27 33 37 40 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 23 25 23 23 23 29 33 36 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 19 21 19 19 19 25 29 32 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT