* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932018 09/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 25 27 31 36 41 46 51 54 59 66 V (KT) LAND 20 25 26 28 30 33 38 44 49 54 56 62 68 V (KT) LGEM 20 24 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 38 40 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 22 24 23 19 25 27 24 19 2 9 10 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 -1 -2 -2 1 -5 -3 3 16 8 8 10 SHEAR DIR 74 79 85 100 104 95 90 70 71 72 230 230 126 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.4 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 135 136 138 144 145 146 148 143 133 130 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 132 131 133 139 139 141 152 152 140 134 133 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -53.5 -54.3 -53.5 -54.0 -53.4 -53.4 -52.7 -53.2 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 74 73 74 74 73 74 72 76 79 74 72 73 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 40 45 58 47 35 38 41 64 67 32 21 31 200 MB DIV 61 36 22 21 49 41 17 6 27 15 9 12 53 700-850 TADV 3 4 7 10 7 6 5 -2 -9 0 8 17 10 LAND (KM) -86 86 216 310 378 463 495 534 657 915 1377 1859 1770 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.2 13.0 12.6 11.5 10.5 10.3 11.5 13.1 14.4 14.7 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 16.0 17.6 18.8 19.7 20.3 21.0 21.0 21.3 22.8 25.8 30.3 34.8 38.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 10 8 7 6 3 5 14 21 23 21 18 HEAT CONTENT 19 6 5 6 7 11 11 11 3 5 7 2 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 422 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 31. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 11. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 16. 21. 26. 31. 34. 39. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.0 16.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932018 INVEST 09/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.05 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 15.0% 7.0% 2.5% 2.0% 5.3% 10.6% 20.4% Bayesian: 1.1% 7.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 1.5% 26.5% Consensus: 2.3% 7.6% 2.7% 0.9% 0.7% 2.2% 4.0% 15.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932018 INVEST 09/06/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 25 26 28 30 33 38 44 49 54 56 62 68 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 27 32 38 43 48 50 56 62 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 23 28 34 39 44 46 52 58 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT