* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932017 10/24/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 36 40 44 49 53 56 58 59 57 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 29 28 27 27 34 39 41 43 45 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 28 28 27 27 30 32 34 36 38 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 13 15 12 13 11 7 6 18 16 12 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 -1 -7 -5 -2 10 4 3 10 9 SHEAR DIR 273 270 270 264 261 222 210 158 101 74 69 142 186 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.8 29.1 29.7 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 168 168 168 170 156 158 155 145 153 164 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 166 167 167 165 166 158 164 156 138 154 163 148 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 4 4 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 78 80 82 84 86 81 86 85 79 75 74 76 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 74 79 89 84 55 80 85 78 44 10 10 -7 200 MB DIV 137 179 196 182 168 107 92 95 120 102 81 88 80 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 4 5 0 -2 0 -1 -7 -3 LAND (KM) 54 32 10 -21 -54 -140 -33 211 366 434 302 51 -125 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.1 12.1 11.2 10.5 10.2 11.4 13.6 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 83.0 83.2 83.4 83.7 84.0 84.8 86.4 88.9 91.2 92.3 92.1 91.5 91.2 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 3 3 7 12 13 9 2 10 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 33 35 18 72 68 36 24 10 8 10 12 16 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -3. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 29. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.0 83.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932017 INVEST 10/24/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.65 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.29 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.64 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.96 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 172.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.96 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 15.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.92 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 45.5% 22.0% 8.3% 6.8% 14.4% 19.1% 25.8% Logistic: 10.8% 66.6% 42.4% 16.2% 9.7% 50.8% 61.0% 67.3% Bayesian: 0.9% 34.8% 11.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 3.0% 47.8% Consensus: 6.1% 49.0% 25.4% 8.2% 5.5% 22.0% 27.7% 47.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932017 INVEST 10/24/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932017 INVEST 10/24/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 29 28 27 27 34 39 41 43 45 33 18HR AGO 30 29 31 27 26 25 25 32 37 39 41 43 31 12HR AGO 30 27 26 22 21 20 20 27 32 34 36 38 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 18 25 30 32 34 36 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT