* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922019 10/09/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 41 43 45 40 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 41 43 45 40 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 30 30 28 24 21 19 24 33 32 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 50 48 51 45 38 51 55 42 24 16 22 28 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -6 -1 -2 -2 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 264 257 259 262 263 256 251 242 251 247 205 217 235 SST (C) 25.8 25.7 25.8 25.7 25.3 24.6 24.7 20.9 13.3 12.7 10.0 9.1 6.2 POT. INT. (KT) 114 113 114 113 109 102 104 84 67 67 67 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 100 101 100 96 87 90 76 64 65 66 67 68 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -55.3 -55.5 -56.6 -56.8 -56.8 -56.1 -56.2 -56.4 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 61 61 60 57 51 51 53 50 43 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 21 24 24 25 26 22 17 15 13 10 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 59 58 73 66 108 147 111 70 38 43 51 78 117 200 MB DIV 20 44 48 30 52 37 66 57 30 47 41 17 -1 700-850 TADV 25 16 11 3 -4 -16 5 8 27 22 -18 -60 -64 LAND (KM) 490 578 712 844 876 809 576 238 104 -67 80 -71 245 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 33.1 33.6 34.2 35.0 36.5 38.7 41.4 43.6 45.7 47.9 48.8 48.2 LONG(DEG W) 71.9 70.3 68.5 66.8 65.1 62.9 62.9 64.9 67.3 67.1 63.6 57.4 49.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 16 15 9 14 16 11 13 19 23 28 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 15 CX,CY: 13/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. -5. -19. -28. -34. -39. -43. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 5. 6. 8. 6. 0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 11. 13. 15. 10. -2. -9. -15. -23. -28. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.5 71.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922019 INVEST 10/09/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922019 INVEST 10/09/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922019 INVEST 10/09/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 38 41 43 45 40 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 34 37 39 41 36 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 33 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT