* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL202019 11/25/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 48 47 48 44 40 35 32 28 23 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 50 48 48 47 48 44 40 35 32 28 23 19 DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 45 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 46 45 43 36 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 8 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 230 236 241 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 18.9 17.4 15.7 14.4 12.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 84 81 78 76 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 80 78 75 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.0 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 -0.4 0.3 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 45 51 49 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 24 24 25 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -10 69 140 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 20 12 25 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 -1 -16 4 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1836 1430 1062 768 466 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.0 42.0 44.0 46.1 48.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.8 26.5 22.2 17.8 13.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 35 38 37 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 33 CX,CY: 29/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -8. -16. -24. -29. -35. -40. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 18. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -2. -6. -10. -15. -18. -22. -27. -31. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 40.0 30.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/25/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.79 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 7.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/25/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 48 48 47 48 44 40 35 32 28 23 19 DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 49 48 49 45 41 36 33 29 24 20 DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 46 42 38 33 30 26 21 17 DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 37 33 28 25 21 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT