* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN AL182017 10/28/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 52 57 63 66 69 70 69 68 66 64 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 52 45 56 59 61 62 62 61 59 57 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 46 51 46 55 55 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 1 3 13 18 22 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 2 5 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 281 269 246 227 228 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.3 28.6 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 172 173 169 160 150 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 164 169 170 167 158 149 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 6 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 68 65 60 49 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 15 17 17 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 23 19 34 38 76 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 96 102 104 103 97 105 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 6 5 7 12 12 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 217 323 216 90 -24 238 665 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.9 20.0 21.4 22.8 25.9 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.4 83.9 83.4 82.3 81.1 77.8 73.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 12 15 18 20 24 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 69 85 65 97 24 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 22. 28. 31. 34. 35. 34. 33. 31. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.8 84.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/28/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 14.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.84 6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 74.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.48 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.45 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.92 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.62 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 110.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.4% 56.0% 43.0% 20.2% 10.0% 19.8% 17.8% 17.4% Logistic: 15.0% 48.4% 30.3% 15.1% 4.7% 9.7% 1.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.2% 4.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 12.2% 36.4% 24.8% 11.8% 4.9% 9.8% 6.4% 5.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/28/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182017 EIGHTEEN 10/28/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 46 52 45 56 59 61 62 62 61 59 57 18HR AGO 35 34 40 46 39 50 53 55 56 56 55 53 51 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 30 41 44 46 47 47 46 44 42 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 18 29 32 34 35 35 34 32 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT