* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENZO AL132019 09/27/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 122 117 111 106 91 84 81 81 79 77 76 69 V (KT) LAND 125 122 117 111 106 91 84 81 81 79 77 76 69 V (KT) LGEM 125 121 115 108 101 92 88 87 88 86 83 79 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 10 13 18 22 17 15 12 14 15 25 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 6 2 0 0 11 5 4 0 1 10 6 SHEAR DIR 238 244 239 279 288 287 272 245 236 239 222 184 206 SST (C) 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.1 26.4 25.3 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 128 132 133 134 132 132 136 135 126 120 112 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 120 122 122 122 118 117 120 119 110 105 101 88 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -51.9 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 69 67 65 63 62 63 70 71 68 65 59 43 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 40 39 37 38 37 39 43 46 47 48 50 47 850 MB ENV VOR 42 56 62 58 40 38 34 46 40 63 80 131 159 200 MB DIV 128 95 110 81 27 35 43 77 53 67 112 127 42 700-850 TADV 13 19 17 14 11 18 16 26 26 31 28 2 -63 LAND (KM) 1869 1920 1977 2039 2105 2263 2426 2404 2237 2105 1992 1926 1867 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 19.1 20.1 21.0 21.9 23.6 25.2 26.8 28.9 30.9 32.9 35.7 39.6 LONG(DEG W) 41.8 42.3 42.9 43.3 43.7 43.9 43.4 42.5 41.2 39.7 38.2 35.3 31.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 8 9 11 12 12 15 22 25 HEAT CONTENT 7 12 25 31 35 17 12 10 10 6 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 12 CX,CY: -5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -3. -4. -6. -9. -15. -25. -37. -48. -59. -67. -72. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -7. -9. -12. -18. -17. -12. -7. -2. 2. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. 1. 4. 8. 10. 10. 12. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -14. -19. -34. -41. -44. -44. -46. -48. -49. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 18.1 41.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -4.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.55 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 469.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 1.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132019 LORENZO 09/27/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 32( 58) 27( 69) 12( 73) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 4( 9) 55( 59) 5( 61) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 122 117 111 106 91 84 81 81 79 77 76 69 18HR AGO 125 124 119 113 108 93 86 83 83 81 79 78 71 12HR AGO 125 122 121 115 110 95 88 85 85 83 81 80 73 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 110 95 88 85 85 83 81 80 73 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 91 84 81 81 79 77 76 69 IN 6HR 125 122 113 107 104 97 90 87 87 85 83 82 75 IN 12HR 125 122 117 108 102 98 91 88 88 86 84 83 76