* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/04/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 90 89 87 83 80 80 83 78 67 48 28 V (KT) LAND 90 90 90 89 87 83 80 80 83 78 63 38 18 V (KT) LGEM 90 90 90 88 86 81 79 82 84 66 49 36 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 18 20 16 9 17 29 43 49 65 50 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -3 0 -2 3 1 10 5 3 0 3 2 SHEAR DIR 172 144 149 161 163 179 258 215 227 212 208 210 220 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.4 27.9 27.0 19.6 15.8 8.8 10.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 151 144 141 135 131 139 129 83 75 70 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 132 126 119 117 115 113 123 115 77 72 68 69 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.2 -49.8 -49.9 -49.9 -49.4 -49.7 -49.9 -50.0 -49.3 -48.6 -48.7 -48.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.3 2.1 1.9 2.7 2.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 11 9 8 9 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 47 43 40 39 38 42 45 51 50 51 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 36 37 35 33 33 38 45 48 48 42 33 850 MB ENV VOR -9 3 12 8 26 47 87 63 87 124 154 178 238 200 MB DIV 49 65 59 36 51 42 51 77 107 96 65 70 62 700-850 TADV 8 0 1 0 0 -4 4 0 3 -9 -32 -60 -32 LAND (KM) 143 144 138 125 101 64 11 247 298 150 37 139 678 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.2 30.8 31.3 31.7 33.0 34.7 36.8 39.6 43.0 47.2 51.5 55.5 LONG(DEG W) 79.6 79.8 80.0 80.0 79.9 78.7 76.5 73.0 68.2 63.6 59.3 53.5 46.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 6 10 15 21 24 25 28 29 29 HEAT CONTENT 53 55 44 32 25 19 8 34 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -14. -19. -26. -33. -39. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -8. -11. -17. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -1. 7. 11. 10. 1. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -10. -7. -12. -23. -42. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 29.5 79.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.61 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 736.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.17 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 14.8% 11.4% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 3.2% 2.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 6.0% 4.9% 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/04/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 10( 30) 9( 37) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 90 90 89 87 83 80 80 83 78 63 38 18 18HR AGO 90 89 89 88 86 82 79 79 82 77 62 37 17 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 83 79 76 76 79 74 59 34 DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 74 71 71 74 69 54 29 DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 67 64 64 67 62 47 22 DIS IN 6HR 90 90 81 75 72 68 65 65 68 63 48 23 DIS IN 12HR 90 90 90 81 75 71 68 68 71 66 51 26 DIS