* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992018 08/17/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 33 41 52 60 65 69 74 79 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 33 41 52 60 65 69 74 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 30 33 38 44 51 57 61 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 21 20 15 20 12 12 8 17 17 23 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 1 -5 -1 -4 0 -5 -6 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 44 36 31 34 35 7 20 332 294 275 275 296 288 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.3 29.5 29.8 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 148 145 142 146 149 146 148 143 162 167 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 153 155 151 147 151 153 149 148 142 158 161 146 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 -55.1 -55.0 -55.2 -54.8 -54.9 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 13 13 14 14 14 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 60 59 55 51 52 49 49 48 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -7 -10 4 11 10 19 15 15 13 -12 -36 -35 200 MB DIV 38 32 26 34 39 33 27 10 6 0 7 5 23 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -4 -2 1 -1 4 10 14 5 10 0 LAND (KM) 538 533 500 440 280 210 344 352 161 78 17 208 257 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.3 11.7 12.6 13.7 14.9 16.2 17.4 18.5 19.3 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 52.2 53.8 55.4 57.0 58.6 61.8 64.8 67.9 71.0 74.2 77.1 79.9 82.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 16 16 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 20 23 31 22 44 39 47 49 57 71 126 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 6. 14. 20. 26. 31. 36. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 16. 27. 35. 40. 44. 49. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 52.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992018 INVEST 08/17/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.17 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.86 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 14.0% 10.4% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 6.7% 3.1% 1.0% 0.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 1.0% Consensus: 1.9% 8.5% 4.8% 2.6% 0.2% 0.9% 3.7% 1.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992018 INVEST 08/17/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992018 INVEST 08/17/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 28 33 41 52 60 65 69 74 79 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 32 40 51 59 64 68 73 78 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 28 36 47 55 60 64 69 74 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 21 29 40 48 53 57 62 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT