* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962018 11/13/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 23 24 26 30 31 32 31 32 31 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 23 22 28 32 33 30 29 28 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 22 19 24 24 23 22 23 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 37 28 24 26 27 23 20 17 31 30 46 46 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 1 0 -5 -2 -1 -6 -8 -8 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 261 270 274 277 290 264 297 268 285 272 267 267 267 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.9 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 148 148 146 150 160 152 147 146 146 147 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 143 144 144 140 140 146 136 131 130 130 132 134 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.2 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 60 58 54 52 53 55 56 58 58 60 58 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 25 20 21 22 36 40 48 13 -4 -20 -26 -44 200 MB DIV -7 -17 -3 -5 -23 -18 -23 -31 -22 -29 -41 -37 -27 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -3 0 4 -3 1 3 1 1 1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 230 103 46 84 56 -32 24 57 61 0 -2 -4 15 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.8 19.9 19.9 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 64.0 65.4 66.7 68.1 69.4 71.4 72.9 73.6 74.4 75.1 75.9 76.7 77.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 9 5 4 3 4 4 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 64 70 78 66 37 68 92 83 57 48 48 56 74 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -13. -19. -25. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 5. 6. 7. 6. 7. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.0 64.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962018 INVEST 11/13/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.05 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.40 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.79 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.81 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 14.2% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.8% 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962018 INVEST 11/13/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962018 INVEST 11/13/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 23 23 22 28 32 33 30 29 28 31 18HR AGO 25 24 24 23 23 22 28 32 33 30 29 28 31 12HR AGO 25 22 21 20 20 19 25 29 30 27 26 25 28 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT