* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962018 11/12/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 25 27 31 34 36 38 38 37 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 26 25 27 31 34 36 38 38 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 24 21 20 20 20 20 21 22 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 35 36 30 27 25 15 25 12 17 20 36 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 0 -1 -2 -6 -8 -3 -8 -8 0 0 SHEAR DIR 241 240 245 246 250 260 266 293 318 296 285 267 260 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.2 26.9 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 143 145 149 145 140 145 141 137 127 125 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 133 134 137 143 140 132 135 128 123 114 113 107 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 69 66 64 62 61 57 55 54 60 62 57 49 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 7 6 6 8 850 MB ENV VOR 36 31 20 16 17 11 8 2 0 -20 -79 -88 -75 200 MB DIV 46 12 35 32 29 7 -30 -30 -32 -24 -17 -9 38 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 0 2 -1 4 9 6 8 7 5 3 LAND (KM) 637 545 464 373 260 21 94 73 200 357 563 773 1072 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.6 19.6 20.4 21.6 23.1 24.9 26.7 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 60.0 60.8 61.5 62.3 63.3 65.8 68.3 70.3 71.7 72.3 71.7 70.0 66.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 11 13 11 10 8 8 11 14 21 HEAT CONTENT 42 52 59 58 59 61 50 37 44 47 22 20 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 23. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.5 60.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962018 INVEST 11/12/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.80 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962018 INVEST 11/12/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962018 INVEST 11/12/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 26 25 27 31 34 36 38 38 37 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 26 25 27 31 34 36 38 38 37 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 23 25 29 32 34 36 36 35 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 18 20 24 27 29 31 31 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT