* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962018 11/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 30 30 30 28 30 35 38 42 42 43 41 V (KT) LAND 30 31 30 30 30 28 30 35 38 42 42 43 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 30 28 24 22 22 22 24 25 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 29 30 34 31 28 16 11 13 10 17 26 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 5 1 0 0 -5 -2 -1 -5 -5 8 9 SHEAR DIR 243 242 240 243 241 250 254 265 332 301 271 227 230 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.0 28.3 28.1 26.9 26.8 25.1 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 135 140 142 144 139 142 139 123 125 113 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 124 130 134 139 133 133 127 111 117 110 104 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.9 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 66 63 57 54 51 54 60 56 40 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 7 6 8 7 8 9 9 9 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 22 30 25 18 13 4 -6 -20 -33 -41 -74 -45 -27 200 MB DIV 49 57 46 43 32 41 -9 -36 -30 -15 -10 27 89 700-850 TADV 4 3 -2 -2 0 -3 2 1 6 3 -7 -22 -31 LAND (KM) 689 722 672 614 517 299 233 260 367 542 843 964 1177 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.4 19.4 20.6 21.8 23.1 24.9 27.5 31.0 34.2 LONG(DEG W) 58.5 59.0 59.4 59.9 60.8 63.1 66.1 68.8 71.1 72.3 71.3 67.0 59.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 8 10 14 15 13 12 11 19 32 39 HEAT CONTENT 39 38 39 42 48 47 47 45 42 20 19 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. 0. 5. 8. 12. 12. 13. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.5 58.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962018 INVEST 11/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.82 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962018 INVEST 11/12/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962018 INVEST 11/12/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 30 30 30 28 30 35 38 42 42 43 41 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 28 26 28 33 36 40 40 41 39 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 24 26 31 34 38 38 39 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 18 20 25 28 32 32 33 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT