* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962018 11/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 21 22 22 27 30 33 37 39 43 45 V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 21 22 22 27 30 33 37 39 43 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 40 41 42 36 26 34 30 24 9 15 13 18 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 3 5 0 -6 -3 -1 -2 1 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 256 246 245 243 237 246 240 248 279 305 349 301 260 SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.2 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.5 28.1 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 139 133 135 142 143 142 139 144 138 123 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 133 125 124 133 135 134 128 132 126 112 114 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 3 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 68 68 63 58 53 52 55 55 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 3 5 6 8 12 13 14 14 13 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 6 9 5 3 12 10 5 4 -7 -17 -20 -36 -36 200 MB DIV 56 47 41 22 60 40 50 10 -11 -19 -23 -4 16 700-850 TADV 13 10 8 3 3 8 13 4 5 0 3 3 -4 LAND (KM) 752 724 752 722 665 509 295 150 229 250 378 562 849 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.8 21.9 23.2 25.1 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 56.2 57.4 58.2 58.9 59.4 60.9 63.1 65.6 67.7 69.4 71.1 72.3 71.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 9 7 9 12 12 10 10 11 13 18 HEAT CONTENT 25 36 39 39 39 46 47 51 53 48 42 20 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 826 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -14. -16. -18. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 7. 8. 9. 7. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. 2. 5. 8. 12. 14. 18. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 56.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962018 INVEST 11/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962018 INVEST 11/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962018 INVEST 11/11/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 21 21 22 22 27 30 33 37 39 43 45 18HR AGO 25 24 22 22 23 23 28 31 34 38 40 44 46 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 22 27 30 33 37 39 43 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 21 24 27 31 33 37 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT