* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962018 11/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 30 29 28 29 27 29 28 35 39 43 44 V (KT) LAND 30 31 30 29 28 29 27 29 28 35 39 43 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 30 28 26 22 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 39 42 42 44 44 35 34 30 24 7 14 15 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 -1 1 3 7 1 0 0 -4 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 258 260 266 263 259 259 248 249 260 239 300 294 253 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.9 27.7 28.1 27.0 26.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 135 139 144 140 134 138 136 141 125 120 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 131 129 133 138 131 124 133 134 133 114 108 105 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -55.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.9 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 9 8 3 700-500 MB RH 65 67 70 72 69 64 63 55 43 40 46 55 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 3 4 7 9 12 12 15 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 19 22 21 15 5 -4 -6 -13 -33 -57 -57 -16 112 200 MB DIV 28 18 54 62 63 68 54 28 21 19 -4 7 63 700-850 TADV 3 5 7 1 0 1 -3 -6 -7 3 5 12 -14 LAND (KM) 1048 1034 1037 1010 994 1056 1010 774 547 631 695 902 754 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.8 16.5 18.4 19.7 20.8 22.2 24.3 25.9 27.9 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 50.3 51.6 52.5 53.2 53.9 55.1 56.2 58.8 62.5 66.3 69.0 70.4 69.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 11 9 10 10 10 10 16 21 17 13 14 24 HEAT CONTENT 21 17 14 15 17 28 44 36 20 28 15 9 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 806 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -17. -21. -23. -23. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 2. 3. 6. 5. 8. 7. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -1. -2. 5. 9. 13. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 50.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962018 INVEST 11/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.83 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962018 INVEST 11/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962018 INVEST 11/11/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 30 29 28 29 27 29 28 35 39 43 44 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 26 27 25 27 26 33 37 41 42 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 25 23 25 24 31 35 39 40 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 20 18 20 19 26 30 34 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT