* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942018 10/16/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 31 36 43 51 58 62 66 71 77 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 32 38 45 53 59 64 67 73 78 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 30 34 37 42 46 49 52 56 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 7 9 14 18 17 25 23 19 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 3 2 0 0 -2 -1 -6 -3 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 272 254 301 175 148 111 106 107 84 70 56 31 342 SST (C) 29.8 30.4 30.1 29.3 28.5 29.7 29.5 29.0 29.1 28.6 28.0 29.1 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 173 172 158 145 165 160 151 150 142 135 153 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 170 173 172 156 141 165 157 146 141 135 128 149 161 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 76 78 81 82 82 84 78 75 70 72 72 78 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 83 83 83 77 81 72 35 16 2 1 -1 18 200 MB DIV 53 72 74 58 75 89 54 74 98 77 111 63 71 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 9 12 10 11 3 1 0 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) -75 -203 -106 -7 65 150 302 458 549 580 520 387 227 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.1 15.9 15.5 14.5 13.5 12.6 12.1 11.7 11.9 13.0 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 89.7 91.2 92.5 93.8 95.0 97.2 99.1 100.6 101.5 101.3 100.4 99.9 100.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 12 12 12 9 7 3 4 5 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 33 13 29 15 15 19 23 24 16 10 8 27 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. 4. 13. 20. 26. 31. 36. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 18. 26. 33. 37. 41. 46. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 89.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942018 INVEST 10/16/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.13 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 26.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.90 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.94 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 21.3% 16.9% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 42.8% 24.0% 16.9% 10.1% 28.3% 42.9% 65.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 5.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 1.1% 67.0% Consensus: 4.0% 23.1% 14.1% 9.4% 3.4% 9.6% 18.6% 44.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942018 INVEST 10/16/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942018 INVEST 10/16/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 32 38 45 53 59 64 67 73 78 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 30 36 43 51 57 62 65 71 76 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 27 33 40 48 54 59 62 68 73 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 21 27 34 42 48 53 56 62 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT