* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912018 10/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 36 45 51 55 54 60 54 51 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 36 45 51 55 54 51 35 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 30 31 32 34 32 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 24 25 22 24 16 20 10 12 13 27 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 2 5 5 5 5 SHEAR DIR 265 264 274 279 278 280 284 295 301 278 222 237 235 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 28.6 28.7 29.2 28.7 28.3 28.5 28.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 156 156 157 144 146 154 147 142 146 149 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 142 142 142 142 129 130 138 131 128 129 133 120 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 3 2 700-500 MB RH 74 72 70 69 67 63 62 64 63 64 64 47 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 17 23 24 24 22 25 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 72 78 71 78 74 81 67 57 40 25 45 32 43 200 MB DIV 121 114 64 27 14 23 65 34 45 63 62 17 38 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 0 8 16 24 20 18 7 29 32 LAND (KM) 125 91 68 60 51 0 112 262 410 192 -28 -322 -290 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 10 13 15 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 45 48 48 49 49 33 23 46 117 37 10 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 10. 10. 7. 11. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 11. 20. 26. 30. 29. 35. 29. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.8 86.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912018 INVEST 10/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.30 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.86 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.78 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 12.9% 9.8% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 5.7% 2.3% 1.0% 0.3% 1.2% 1.6% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.7% 6.2% 4.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 26.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912018 INVEST 10/06/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912018 INVEST 10/06/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 30 36 45 51 55 54 51 35 29 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 34 43 49 53 52 49 33 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 30 39 45 49 48 45 29 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 22 31 37 41 40 37 21 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT