* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912018 10/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 29 37 48 52 57 58 59 58 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 29 37 48 52 57 44 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 25 27 30 32 34 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 21 24 23 23 23 20 13 18 16 20 24 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 2 1 -2 -3 1 -1 0 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 268 264 263 276 280 272 309 284 294 271 265 231 199 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.5 28.6 28.3 28.8 28.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 161 160 159 159 158 162 148 143 151 147 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 146 145 143 141 144 149 154 142 131 136 130 113 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 9 8 9 9 8 5 6 2 700-500 MB RH 75 73 74 74 73 72 70 68 68 69 75 71 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 18 23 23 24 24 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 77 69 74 73 68 71 73 78 81 47 6 70 81 200 MB DIV 79 107 107 74 46 43 83 57 14 43 35 64 90 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 3 7 11 20 13 17 33 -16 LAND (KM) 169 130 100 69 54 48 135 78 174 138 -101 -385 -430 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.2 19.1 21.1 24.3 27.7 30.9 34.2 37.5 LONG(DEG W) 86.2 86.7 87.0 87.3 87.4 87.2 86.2 84.8 84.0 84.2 84.8 84.2 80.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 3 2 1 4 10 14 18 16 17 18 24 HEAT CONTENT 43 44 44 44 44 45 61 135 44 29 5 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 30. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 9. 9. 10. 10. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 12. 23. 27. 32. 33. 34. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.3 86.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912018 INVEST 10/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.16 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.87 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.79 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 10.9% 7.9% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 4.2% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1.0% 2.6% 9.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 1.2% 5.1% 3.1% 1.7% 0.1% 0.4% 0.9% 3.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 39.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912018 INVEST 10/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912018 INVEST 10/06/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 27 29 37 48 52 57 44 32 29 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 27 35 46 50 55 42 30 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 24 32 43 47 52 39 27 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 25 36 40 45 32 20 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT