* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912018 10/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 26 29 39 45 47 46 52 51 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 26 29 39 45 47 46 33 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 22 22 23 24 25 26 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 28 24 25 24 25 25 17 21 20 23 21 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 3 6 -1 -1 0 -3 -3 0 -7 -1 SHEAR DIR 257 263 263 266 284 278 298 311 297 307 298 274 233 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 28.4 28.7 28.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 159 159 161 159 160 159 159 159 145 149 152 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 145 145 142 143 146 151 154 136 136 135 119 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 4 700-500 MB RH 76 73 70 72 72 71 69 67 68 71 73 76 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 15 21 23 22 20 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 84 67 64 68 72 62 68 72 73 74 11 33 57 200 MB DIV 53 84 116 107 72 41 48 71 24 40 16 52 64 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -4 -4 1 10 14 26 19 16 12 7 LAND (KM) 164 140 86 54 38 31 61 188 9 141 26 -166 -305 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.0 17.9 18.0 18.5 19.7 22.0 25.4 28.5 31.6 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 85.8 86.5 86.9 87.3 87.6 87.6 87.0 85.6 84.0 83.0 82.9 83.1 82.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 4 3 2 2 6 11 16 17 16 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 46 47 48 47 47 46 48 76 124 34 48 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 30. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 8. 7. 4. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 14. 20. 22. 21. 27. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.3 85.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912018 INVEST 10/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.30 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.85 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.80 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 13.0% 9.7% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 5.0% 3.4% 1.9% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912018 INVEST 10/06/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912018 INVEST 10/06/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 26 26 29 39 45 47 46 33 29 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 25 25 28 38 44 46 45 32 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 22 25 35 41 43 42 29 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 15 18 28 34 36 35 22 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT