* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912018 10/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 30 31 39 48 50 53 57 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 30 31 39 48 50 53 42 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 27 26 26 27 30 31 32 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 28 25 25 26 25 19 15 21 15 15 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 2 0 -3 -1 2 -4 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 259 261 265 269 268 280 271 295 264 294 278 239 209 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 155 154 153 155 158 158 158 143 148 147 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 139 143 140 138 140 142 146 148 134 135 131 129 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.8 -52.9 -53.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.4 1.0 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 7 6 9 7 9 8 8 5 6 700-500 MB RH 77 76 73 72 72 71 70 68 69 66 69 69 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 19 24 24 24 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 81 79 69 64 71 62 67 68 69 65 40 20 64 200 MB DIV 68 64 79 106 99 30 29 31 33 19 40 38 59 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -3 -4 -1 2 10 17 18 22 23 24 LAND (KM) 70 112 162 196 164 115 104 130 64 301 146 -100 -450 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.4 19.1 20.2 22.3 25.2 28.4 31.4 34.4 LONG(DEG W) 84.7 85.1 85.6 85.9 86.1 86.5 86.5 85.9 85.1 84.9 85.6 86.2 85.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 4 3 3 4 9 13 16 16 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 38 43 46 49 51 52 54 70 92 25 28 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 6. 11. 11. 11. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 6. 14. 23. 25. 28. 32. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.5 84.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912018 INVEST 10/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.15 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.29 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.86 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.83 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 16.2% 12.3% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 6.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 2.0% 4.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 7.6% 4.9% 2.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 1.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912018 INVEST 10/06/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912018 INVEST 10/06/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 31 30 31 39 48 50 53 42 32 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 27 28 36 45 47 50 39 29 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 23 24 32 41 43 46 35 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 15 16 24 33 35 38 27 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT