* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912018 09/02/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 41 48 58 67 69 69 69 70 73 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 41 48 58 67 41 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 37 45 56 66 42 31 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 12 9 3 11 4 12 9 10 13 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -8 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -3 -2 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 275 274 292 330 289 299 278 313 320 332 330 318 281 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.0 30.0 29.1 27.8 27.0 26.4 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 163 167 171 173 173 171 171 153 132 122 115 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 151 155 160 163 162 156 152 131 110 100 95 93 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.3 -55.4 -55.5 -55.2 -54.9 -54.5 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 9 7 9 6 8 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 62 64 62 65 64 69 69 71 72 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 8 7 6 6 8 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -20 -33 -37 -24 -51 -41 -84 -47 -38 -5 -17 21 200 MB DIV 11 6 -5 6 15 -6 30 9 10 16 30 26 38 700-850 TADV 1 -2 2 2 -3 0 5 11 9 5 8 3 6 LAND (KM) 104 107 138 102 37 165 221 4 -180 -313 -411 -471 -509 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 13 10 6 4 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 47 58 52 46 38 27 25 26 7 7 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. -2. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 16. 23. 33. 42. 44. 44. 44. 45. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.4 76.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912018 INVEST 09/02/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.31 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.81 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.90 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 27.3% 18.5% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 10.9% 63.3% 51.0% 25.3% 17.4% 41.8% 47.7% 59.5% Bayesian: 1.2% 24.5% 7.5% 0.9% 0.6% 3.3% 0.3% 1.6% Consensus: 6.6% 38.4% 25.7% 12.9% 6.0% 15.0% 20.2% 20.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912018 INVEST 09/02/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912018 INVEST 09/02/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 29 32 36 41 48 58 67 41 31 28 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 36 43 53 62 36 26 23 22 22 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 37 47 56 30 20 17 16 16 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 27 37 46 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT