* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912018 09/02/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 44 57 60 64 65 66 65 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 35 44 57 42 32 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 25 29 35 43 36 29 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 12 12 7 7 8 10 18 15 14 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -7 -6 -4 -2 -2 -3 -1 -2 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 305 266 261 279 303 265 310 291 307 310 351 328 341 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.2 29.8 29.4 27.7 26.8 25.9 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 161 167 171 173 173 167 159 132 120 111 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 150 156 159 164 162 150 136 110 98 92 87 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.5 -55.2 -55.3 -55.5 -54.8 -54.9 -53.9 -54.5 -54.2 -55.0 -54.7 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 7 10 4 7 0 700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 60 62 63 62 62 59 61 65 70 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 6 7 8 9 11 9 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -22 -21 -35 -33 -21 -57 -57 -90 -39 -18 -2 1 200 MB DIV 11 15 2 -6 13 14 -4 20 13 6 -8 35 15 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -5 2 4 -2 6 14 6 11 4 6 3 LAND (KM) 89 105 94 120 129 96 250 112 -123 -300 -434 -558 -713 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.3 22.8 23.4 24.1 25.6 27.4 29.4 31.5 33.1 34.3 35.4 36.8 LONG(DEG W) 75.5 76.5 77.6 78.8 80.0 82.6 85.3 87.7 89.2 90.0 90.4 90.7 90.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 15 15 14 11 7 5 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 43 49 58 48 41 32 34 22 7 7 7 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. 4. 13. 20. 27. 31. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 2. 2. 0. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 24. 37. 40. 44. 45. 46. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 21.8 75.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912018 INVEST 09/02/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.83 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 19.6% 9.8% 2.0% 1.0% 8.7% 23.8% 44.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 7.4% 3.4% 0.7% 0.3% 2.9% 8.0% 14.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912018 INVEST 09/02/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912018 INVEST 09/02/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 23 25 28 35 44 57 42 32 28 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 33 42 55 40 30 26 25 25 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 28 37 50 35 25 21 20 20 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT