* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912018 06/15/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 21 21 21 22 25 28 30 35 41 46 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 21 21 21 22 25 28 26 26 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 38 38 33 31 31 16 17 12 16 7 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 5 3 7 -1 2 1 1 0 0 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 301 306 319 327 324 345 345 357 297 331 303 17 228 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 152 152 154 154 151 150 149 147 147 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 139 134 134 133 135 134 131 131 129 126 127 127 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -53.8 -53.1 -53.6 -52.8 -53.5 -52.6 -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 10 8 12 9 12 9 13 10 13 700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 73 70 69 71 72 75 77 79 78 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 23 32 32 40 75 105 114 115 81 96 83 80 200 MB DIV 24 35 18 30 30 19 22 63 56 46 73 29 27 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -9 -7 -3 -5 -1 -4 2 0 0 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 277 366 324 294 253 173 93 44 9 -61 -112 -194 -255 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.2 22.5 22.7 22.8 22.6 22.3 22.1 22.5 23.0 23.4 23.5 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 92.9 93.7 94.2 94.6 95.1 95.9 96.7 97.3 97.8 98.4 98.9 99.7 100.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 20 26 33 34 27 16 8 17 14 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 839 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 32. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 21. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 21.6 92.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912018 INVEST 06/15/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.15 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 23.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.91 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912018 INVEST 06/15/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912018 INVEST 06/15/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 20 21 21 21 22 25 28 26 26 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 19 20 20 20 21 24 27 25 25 26 26 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 17 17 18 21 24 22 22 23 23 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT