* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912018 06/14/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 18 17 18 22 22 25 30 36 41 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 18 17 18 22 21 25 26 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 42 35 35 38 33 27 26 15 22 7 16 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 6 4 4 0 0 3 1 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 301 307 296 304 317 316 338 338 7 312 348 291 348 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 147 150 150 151 152 149 145 145 146 147 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 134 132 133 132 134 136 131 128 126 128 129 133 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.5 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -53.4 -53.7 -52.8 -53.4 -52.4 -52.9 -52.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 10 9 12 10 13 10 13 8 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 77 76 70 68 70 70 73 71 72 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 5 4 4 5 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -14 -13 2 6 13 39 77 106 115 83 78 60 200 MB DIV 16 -10 10 24 -9 6 8 21 30 49 25 53 32 700-850 TADV -4 1 3 -1 -10 -3 -5 5 -9 -4 -2 -5 0 LAND (KM) 22 129 191 248 304 382 265 122 -30 -152 -275 -397 -297 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.3 23.0 23.4 23.9 24.0 24.2 24.1 24.0 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 90.7 91.6 92.1 92.5 92.9 93.8 95.2 96.6 98.1 99.3 100.5 101.7 103.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 7 6 5 6 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 14 15 18 21 25 34 28 22 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 790 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -4. -9. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 2. 2. 5. 10. 17. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 20.2 90.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912018 INVEST 06/14/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.11 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 27.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.91 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912018 INVEST 06/14/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912018 INVEST 06/14/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 19 19 18 17 18 22 21 25 26 26 27 18HR AGO 20 19 19 19 18 17 18 22 21 25 26 26 27 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT