* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912018 06/13/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 22 23 23 24 26 27 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 23 27 27 27 27 25 26 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 22 19 25 22 20 19 21 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 37 31 33 38 43 31 28 27 33 28 23 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 -2 0 -3 2 8 SHEAR DIR 292 300 288 287 289 296 290 301 335 329 349 319 318 SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.0 28.5 29.0 28.6 27.9 26.3 23.4 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 144 147 148 145 143 138 145 153 148 136 117 93 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 138 135 133 128 133 141 136 121 102 81 73 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.8 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -54.3 -54.7 -53.7 -53.5 -52.5 -52.0 -51.0 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 9 8 9 8 9 8 12 9 11 7 700-500 MB RH 70 72 74 74 74 76 73 67 60 63 62 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -9 0 -12 -37 -23 -8 0 -11 27 27 12 3 200 MB DIV 10 13 36 54 32 31 13 11 -4 -17 21 28 23 700-850 TADV 8 7 6 3 -2 2 -5 5 -8 26 -11 14 -15 LAND (KM) 122 201 134 60 -14 57 312 413 167 -147 -415 -619 -758 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.8 18.5 19.2 20.0 21.9 23.9 25.7 27.3 29.0 30.6 32.3 33.3 LONG(DEG W) 85.0 85.8 86.3 86.9 87.5 88.9 90.4 92.5 95.2 97.9 100.0 101.0 101.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 10 12 12 14 16 13 11 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 23 30 31 7 5 28 29 17 26 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -18. -23. -27. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.0 85.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912018 INVEST 06/13/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 68.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912018 INVEST 06/13/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912018 INVEST 06/13/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 23 27 27 27 27 25 26 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 22 26 26 26 26 24 25 26 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 19 23 23 23 23 21 22 23 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT