* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912018 06/13/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 24 24 21 20 21 20 20 19 21 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 24 24 23 22 24 23 24 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 18 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 32 36 32 33 43 36 27 25 34 39 33 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 0 0 -1 -4 -8 2 SHEAR DIR 244 264 280 287 274 294 283 284 297 331 331 7 341 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.1 28.7 29.0 28.6 27.0 22.8 18.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 141 144 145 139 148 154 148 126 93 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 133 133 136 137 131 138 142 135 113 84 72 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.7 -55.0 -54.7 -54.3 -55.2 -54.4 -55.0 -53.9 -53.4 -52.0 -51.7 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 10 10 8 8 8 9 8 12 8 13 700-500 MB RH 68 67 68 69 73 74 75 72 66 57 58 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 4 4 5 6 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 21 8 0 5 7 -39 -34 -16 -11 -38 3 -8 5 200 MB DIV 33 30 5 18 46 47 11 11 9 -21 -11 13 37 700-850 TADV 8 8 11 12 8 -1 1 -5 0 -6 38 4 59 LAND (KM) 72 90 115 206 269 88 69 357 338 67 -273 -598 -877 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 16.0 16.8 17.7 18.5 20.2 22.2 24.4 26.4 28.2 30.2 32.7 35.9 LONG(DEG W) 82.6 83.3 83.9 84.4 85.0 86.4 88.2 90.1 92.4 95.3 98.3 100.2 100.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 12 14 14 15 16 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 18 22 32 40 7 31 31 12 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -9. -15. -18. -24. -29. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 82.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912018 INVEST 06/13/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 90.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912018 INVEST 06/13/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912018 INVEST 06/13/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 24 24 24 23 22 24 23 24 26 26 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 24 23 22 24 23 24 26 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 21 20 19 21 20 21 23 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT