* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912018 06/12/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 25 23 23 25 25 26 24 28 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 25 23 23 25 25 24 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 22 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 26 32 34 32 36 33 30 18 23 26 40 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 8 3 1 -1 0 0 -3 0 0 0 -8 5 SHEAR DIR 239 246 266 278 285 280 295 274 287 302 329 348 23 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.6 28.5 28.8 28.7 29.3 26.4 21.6 17.5 POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 138 137 139 146 145 150 149 159 120 88 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 132 132 132 137 136 140 137 147 109 80 72 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.1 -54.5 -54.9 -54.6 -54.7 -55.1 -55.0 -55.0 -54.1 -53.5 -52.5 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.9 -0.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 10 9 11 700-500 MB RH 68 68 67 68 70 73 73 70 70 61 58 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 6 850 MB ENV VOR 17 17 5 0 6 -18 -41 -31 -3 -62 -24 -4 20 200 MB DIV 39 37 32 18 46 40 13 34 36 -22 -7 7 32 700-850 TADV 10 7 7 11 13 3 -4 -2 -5 5 1 24 16 LAND (KM) 172 112 137 179 270 178 84 312 278 113 -220 -586 -999 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.3 16.1 17.1 18.2 20.2 22.1 24.4 26.6 28.7 31.0 33.6 37.7 LONG(DEG W) 81.6 82.2 82.6 83.2 83.8 85.0 86.5 88.3 90.3 93.0 96.3 98.7 99.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 12 12 12 13 14 15 17 18 18 22 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 16 21 27 70 28 31 32 21 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -13. -15. -18. -22. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -2. -2. 0. -0. 1. -1. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.6 81.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912018 INVEST 06/12/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.04 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 97.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912018 INVEST 06/12/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912018 INVEST 06/12/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 25 25 23 23 25 25 24 26 27 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 24 22 22 24 24 23 25 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 21 19 19 21 21 20 22 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT