* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912018 06/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 27 27 28 27 24 24 27 27 30 30 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 27 28 27 24 24 27 27 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 20 24 31 31 33 36 30 21 22 28 30 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 10 7 6 -4 3 -2 0 1 0 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 242 241 237 256 269 272 289 278 271 281 323 319 324 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.8 29.0 28.4 27.2 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 139 139 138 137 145 145 144 150 154 145 128 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 134 134 133 132 138 136 134 140 142 132 114 89 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.6 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 -54.4 -55.2 -54.8 -55.3 -54.1 -53.7 -52.3 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -1.1 -0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 10 9 10 8 9 8 9 8 11 9 700-500 MB RH 70 68 66 65 66 71 73 74 71 65 59 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 6 7 7 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 23 16 20 9 0 -3 -35 -34 -21 -6 -14 19 14 200 MB DIV 24 36 52 36 29 48 45 31 27 9 -14 5 28 700-850 TADV 8 8 8 9 15 8 0 1 -5 3 -6 25 -4 LAND (KM) 262 183 143 158 201 277 93 167 426 314 33 -286 -571 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.4 15.3 16.2 17.2 19.3 21.2 23.1 25.1 26.8 28.3 29.9 31.8 LONG(DEG W) 80.8 81.5 81.9 82.4 83.0 84.4 86.0 87.8 89.9 92.7 96.0 98.9 100.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 13 15 16 16 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 14 16 22 46 41 21 29 29 11 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -6. -11. -14. -17. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -3. -4. -2. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -1. 2. 2. 5. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 80.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912018 INVEST 06/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.14 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 112.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912018 INVEST 06/12/18 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912018 INVEST 06/12/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 27 27 28 27 24 24 27 27 26 26 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 25 26 25 22 22 25 25 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 22 21 18 18 21 21 20 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT