* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 04/18/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 43 44 45 41 42 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 43 44 45 41 42 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 33 34 37 40 44 50 54 55 57 60 Storm Type SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 25 27 28 25 27 17 11 8 13 21 28 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -5 -2 0 -1 0 3 3 7 SHEAR DIR 284 282 282 283 286 276 270 267 269 285 253 240 231 SST (C) 20.8 21.0 21.1 21.0 20.6 19.8 18.3 17.1 17.1 12.7 5.2 4.1 4.3 POT. INT. (KT) 79 81 82 83 82 80 76 74 74 67 63 65 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 71 73 74 76 76 74 71 70 69 64 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.2 -56.9 -57.4 -58.0 -59.2 -60.6 -60.7 -60.4 -59.9 -59.6 -58.3 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) 2.8 2.2 1.9 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.7 1.2 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 52 53 54 55 58 48 40 42 45 45 58 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 22 21 20 17 14 11 9 7 7 6 11 850 MB ENV VOR 182 180 172 169 158 125 120 81 42 63 22 19 27 200 MB DIV -11 -19 4 14 11 18 21 15 15 6 21 32 39 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 3 1 9 21 12 13 14 14 19 28 LAND (KM) 1922 1971 2033 2084 2099 1995 1721 1402 1022 722 560 510 561 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 30.8 30.5 30.5 31.0 33.3 36.5 39.5 42.5 44.6 46.5 49.4 52.9 LONG(DEG W) 43.5 43.0 42.2 41.0 39.6 37.5 37.5 38.9 41.6 44.3 45.6 46.1 47.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 9 11 14 15 16 17 17 11 12 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. 30. 29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -19. -23. -27. -27. -29. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 6. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.1 43.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 04/18/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.10 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.55 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.64 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.11 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.09 0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 132.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 5.7% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 04/18/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 04/18/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 36 37 38 39 40 43 44 45 41 42 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 36 37 38 39 42 43 44 40 41 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 34 35 36 39 40 41 37 38 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 27 28 29 32 33 34 30 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT