* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912016 08/27/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 39 44 48 51 53 52 51 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 39 44 48 45 34 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 35 37 38 40 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 12 10 10 16 16 20 19 18 29 28 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 1 0 -3 0 -1 0 -2 -5 -5 -4 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 237 139 148 148 136 150 187 208 254 265 295 271 270 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 156 153 152 155 150 152 153 148 147 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 131 132 132 130 130 131 122 124 124 120 120 121 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 5 7 5 8 6 700-500 MB RH 42 44 43 41 42 41 43 48 47 52 57 60 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -20 -33 -42 -37 -61 -71 -40 -35 -13 -23 19 0 200 MB DIV -23 -14 -28 -17 -12 2 5 -1 -18 -4 -7 22 -14 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 0 1 1 2 2 0 -3 -3 -4 0 LAND (KM) 1065 990 922 831 734 497 254 56 -5 -83 -120 -110 -65 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.1 31.3 31.6 31.9 32.7 33.6 34.6 34.6 34.5 34.0 33.3 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 65.9 66.6 67.3 68.2 69.2 71.6 74.1 75.9 77.4 79.0 80.3 81.2 81.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 9 10 11 11 7 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 27 29 38 38 26 43 35 5 40 40 38 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 2. -3. -9. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 27. 26. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 30.8 65.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912016 INVEST 08/27/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.77 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.43 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.56 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.02 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.70 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 72.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.27 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 210.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 15.9% 10.3% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% Logistic: 2.5% 7.9% 2.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.7% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 8.1% 4.4% 3.2% 0.0% 0.2% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912016 INVEST 08/27/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912016 INVEST 08/27/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 39 44 48 45 34 29 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 36 41 45 42 31 26 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 31 36 40 37 26 21 19 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 27 31 28 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT