* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902017 10/04/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 35 41 48 60 67 72 75 78 72 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 35 31 37 50 41 37 40 35 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 34 31 35 38 34 33 37 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 4 1 6 12 16 15 9 6 14 23 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -5 -4 0 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -1 7 SHEAR DIR 94 7 345 256 221 207 200 150 116 47 336 246 238 SST (C) 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.4 29.6 26.0 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 170 170 171 171 172 171 166 162 168 120 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 169 169 170 170 171 171 170 163 158 163 172 113 92 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 7 8 7 8 6 8 7 7 1 700-500 MB RH 83 84 82 85 86 82 83 80 80 73 69 61 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 16 17 18 18 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 89 93 109 125 142 162 204 163 106 27 -31 -55 -8 200 MB DIV 83 98 111 125 117 158 140 133 104 44 36 78 141 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -4 1 0 7 23 64 LAND (KM) 259 219 166 119 64 -34 83 84 -61 56 225 -279 -810 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.6 15.1 16.6 17.7 19.0 22.0 27.1 33.0 37.9 LONG(DEG W) 81.3 81.6 82.0 82.4 82.9 84.0 85.5 87.2 88.1 88.5 88.9 89.2 86.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 8 10 10 9 10 21 29 28 27 HEAT CONTENT 50 59 60 51 53 52 74 89 98 6 33 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 3. 10. 19. 24. 29. 34. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 8. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 10. 16. 23. 35. 42. 47. 50. 53. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 81.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902017 INVEST 10/04/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.98 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 54.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.26 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.6 28.4 to 139.6 1.00 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.65 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 3.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.93 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 35.7% 15.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 76.0% 54.8% 32.1% 13.2% 30.7% 52.2% 84.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 34.2% Consensus: 4.2% 38.0% 23.5% 13.5% 4.4% 10.2% 23.7% 39.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902017 INVEST 10/04/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902017 INVEST 10/04/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 32 35 31 37 50 41 37 40 35 29 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 33 29 35 48 39 35 38 33 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 24 30 43 34 30 33 28 22 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT