* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 11/17/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 18 19 21 27 33 37 45 49 53 V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 18 19 21 23 25 26 36 41 45 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 16 22 25 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 19 19 15 13 12 12 11 10 12 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 1 0 2 -4 -3 -3 -4 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 185 187 195 211 219 185 192 162 176 164 161 172 173 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 155 157 158 158 154 149 141 136 133 132 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 147 150 151 151 150 146 138 131 127 126 130 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 6 7 5 5 3 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 68 66 66 68 70 72 75 77 81 77 68 64 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 10 10 11 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 43 43 49 56 57 57 52 49 50 55 58 69 71 200 MB DIV 3 -9 -25 -8 5 14 43 43 56 65 55 65 80 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 330 292 260 230 192 142 73 -18 -65 0 34 50 28 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 12.9 12.7 12.5 12.3 11.8 10.9 10.0 9.0 8.3 7.9 7.8 8.1 LONG(DEG W) 80.4 80.8 81.1 81.4 81.8 82.4 82.9 83.3 83.1 82.9 82.6 82.8 83.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 3 1 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 31 33 36 43 43 22 17 1 5 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 35. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -3. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 7. 13. 17. 25. 29. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.0 80.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 11/17/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.08 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.90 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 44.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 5.7% 2.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.4% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 2.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 11/17/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 11/17/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 18 18 18 19 21 23 25 26 36 41 45 18HR AGO 20 19 18 18 18 19 21 23 25 26 36 41 45 12HR AGO 20 17 16 16 16 17 19 21 23 24 34 39 43 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT