* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 11/16/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 37 44 50 53 58 65 75 83 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 37 44 50 53 58 65 75 83 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 27 29 31 32 33 35 39 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 6 9 11 15 13 15 11 13 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 2 4 3 1 -3 -2 -2 -4 -7 -9 -6 SHEAR DIR 130 145 162 164 175 178 175 192 183 187 145 148 94 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 154 154 153 154 155 155 155 157 156 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 150 146 144 143 142 144 147 145 146 151 151 153 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 5 5 3 4 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 72 74 72 71 73 73 76 79 81 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 9 10 11 10 12 13 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR 27 32 24 31 40 46 62 72 71 67 79 72 81 200 MB DIV 133 92 64 57 34 22 16 17 24 52 84 106 142 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 223 233 255 278 289 300 311 331 292 255 243 188 108 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.7 12.3 11.6 10.8 10.3 LONG(DEG W) 78.8 79.4 79.6 79.7 79.6 79.5 79.7 80.2 80.8 81.2 81.5 81.2 80.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 43 37 33 32 32 32 31 29 29 32 36 37 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 36. 40. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 30. 33. 38. 45. 55. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 78.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 11/16/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.89 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 29.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.0% 47.5% 26.0% 12.8% 0.0% 21.8% 29.1% Bayesian: 0.9% 6.7% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% Consensus: 3.6% 18.1% 9.3% 4.3% 0.0% 7.3% 9.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 11/16/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 11/16/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 25 28 31 37 44 50 53 58 65 75 83 18HR AGO 20 19 22 25 28 34 41 47 50 55 62 72 80 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 22 28 35 41 44 49 56 66 74 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT