* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 11/15/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 35 41 46 48 50 52 57 63 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 35 41 46 48 50 52 37 43 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 27 29 30 29 29 28 26 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 7 10 9 12 15 18 18 20 13 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 0 2 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 111 130 148 154 179 207 201 180 200 195 216 173 173 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 28.4 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 156 153 153 154 157 158 160 142 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 152 150 148 147 143 143 145 150 152 158 143 132 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.9 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 6 7 6 7 5 7 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 73 72 71 71 71 73 74 79 80 82 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 11 850 MB ENV VOR 31 37 35 33 27 38 51 63 63 61 55 59 51 200 MB DIV 122 109 100 82 54 38 24 20 11 10 50 30 45 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 244 264 284 309 337 401 398 314 223 108 23 -49 119 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.2 13.4 13.4 13.2 12.9 11.9 10.4 8.7 LONG(DEG W) 77.5 78.0 78.5 78.8 79.0 79.2 79.6 80.4 81.4 82.5 83.5 84.7 85.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 2 3 4 6 6 8 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 44 46 42 37 34 32 31 30 32 31 13 17 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 31. 36. 40. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 21. 26. 28. 30. 32. 37. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 77.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 11/15/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.91 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 11.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 39.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.3% 55.1% 29.3% 14.0% 0.0% 35.2% 30.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 41.2% 13.2% 0.8% 0.3% 4.0% 2.2% Consensus: 5.5% 32.1% 14.2% 4.9% 0.1% 13.1% 10.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902016 INVEST 11/15/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 11/15/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 27 30 35 41 46 48 50 52 37 43 18HR AGO 20 19 21 24 27 32 38 43 45 47 49 34 40 12HR AGO 20 17 16 19 22 27 33 38 40 42 44 29 35 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT