* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902016 01/13/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 41 39 40 46 57 60 60 51 42 45 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 41 39 40 46 57 60 60 51 42 45 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 42 41 41 42 47 54 56 53 49 46 49 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 27 25 21 16 25 11 18 30 38 40 28 15 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 4 -5 5 4 8 20 18 33 28 13 SHEAR DIR 317 316 324 316 323 305 284 200 200 194 162 111 258 SST (C) 22.9 22.4 22.1 21.6 21.1 20.4 19.0 16.0 13.5 10.5 7.8 6.4 6.5 POT. INT. (KT) 92 90 88 85 83 82 79 75 73 70 67 65 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 82 81 78 76 75 74 72 71 68 66 64 63 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.9 -53.0 -54.6 -56.1 -58.7 -61.1 -62.9 -63.0 -62.3 -62.3 -63.6 -65.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 59 59 58 56 56 67 71 70 73 76 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 27 27 25 25 29 35 37 38 29 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 231 215 188 172 158 119 105 105 144 46 165 190 38 200 MB DIV 17 -11 8 21 15 33 66 119 7 72 66 15 20 700-850 TADV -1 5 0 -4 24 13 12 51 38 -68 -84 -44 -20 LAND (KM) 1754 1659 1574 1547 1520 1484 1458 1379 1198 882 912 1171 1413 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.4 27.2 28.2 29.1 31.0 33.9 38.5 44.3 50.2 55.0 57.7 59.8 LONG(DEG W) 33.7 32.6 31.4 30.7 30.0 28.6 26.6 25.1 23.9 22.6 24.0 27.5 30.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 14 20 27 30 26 20 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 13 CX,CY: 13/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 22. 30. 37. 42. 45. 50. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. 4. 6. 7. -2. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 12. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. 1. 12. 15. 15. 6. -3. 0. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902016 INVEST 01/13/16 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902016 INVEST 01/13/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)