* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL152018 10/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 33 30 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 33 30 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 42 39 36 33 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 29 29 30 34 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 5 6 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 246 245 236 233 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.0 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 130 128 125 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 122 123 122 119 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -55.1 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 66 64 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -63 -58 -46 -37 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 17 9 24 28 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1891 1970 2037 1968 1903 1727 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.8 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.1 35.9 36.6 37.6 38.6 41.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 6 6 7 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 765 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 39.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -23. -25. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -15. -23. -27. -31. -34. -36. -36. -35. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.7 35.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152018 NADINE 10/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.03 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 39.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 226.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152018 NADINE 10/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152018 NADINE 10/12/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 41 37 33 30 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 40 36 33 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 37 34 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 32 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT