* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL152018 10/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 37 33 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 37 33 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 41 37 33 30 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 24 26 26 29 38 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 8 7 9 9 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 250 249 246 236 240 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 129 129 126 127 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 126 122 122 119 121 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -55.3 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 67 67 65 60 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -53 -54 -59 -53 -54 -44 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 37 34 29 26 -3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 3 1 0 0 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1829 1897 1965 2042 2000 1857 1728 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.5 35.1 35.8 36.5 37.3 39.3 41.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 3 4 5 10 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 775 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. -24. -24. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -12. -17. -24. -32. -37. -40. -43. -43. -42. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.3 34.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152018 NADINE 10/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.16 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.70 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.39 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 5.5% 4.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152018 NADINE 10/11/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 40 37 33 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 41 37 32 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 37 32 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT