* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL152018 10/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 50 47 44 38 28 24 21 19 19 19 18 V (KT) LAND 55 53 50 47 44 38 28 24 21 19 19 19 18 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 49 46 40 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 19 19 20 28 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 9 8 8 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 253 264 255 237 233 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 128 128 125 126 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 125 120 120 118 118 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.5 -54.9 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 73 69 67 68 64 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 12 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -40 -46 -53 -58 -60 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 50 67 58 50 32 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 10 12 6 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1626 1678 1733 1789 1847 1976 2004 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.3 16.0 16.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.5 33.1 33.6 34.1 34.7 35.9 37.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 4 2 1 1 1 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -17. -26. -31. -34. -36. -36. -36. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.3 32.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152018 NADINE 10/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.09 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.67 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.35 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 8.5% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152018 NADINE 10/11/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 50 47 44 38 28 24 21 19 19 19 18 18HR AGO 55 54 51 48 45 39 29 25 22 20 20 20 19 12HR AGO 55 52 51 48 45 39 29 25 22 20 20 20 19 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 36 26 22 19 17 17 17 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT