* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL152018 10/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 55 53 51 43 33 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 55 53 51 43 33 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 56 53 46 38 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 17 22 20 25 33 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 10 6 8 11 7 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 235 244 256 253 231 228 229 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 27.5 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 130 128 127 125 124 130 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 123 120 119 117 116 123 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -54.7 -54.6 -55.3 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 75 73 69 66 68 62 54 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 12 10 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -30 -36 -42 -51 -63 -63 -47 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 62 77 79 68 64 29 -2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 8 9 12 9 3 -1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1580 1609 1639 1683 1729 1858 2021 2035 1915 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.4 13.9 14.5 15.0 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 32.0 32.3 32.7 33.1 33.6 34.8 36.3 38.2 40.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 7 9 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 8 4 2 1 0 0 0 3 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -16. -17. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -17. -19. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -4. -12. -22. -33. -40. -44. -46. -47. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.8 32.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152018 NADINE 10/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.12 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.67 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.36 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 14.7% 11.5% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.5% 4.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152018 NADINE 10/10/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 55 53 51 43 33 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 53 51 49 41 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 47 39 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT