* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL152018 10/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 47 47 43 37 27 19 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 47 47 43 37 27 19 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 46 46 43 37 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 11 9 12 16 27 38 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 4 8 9 13 7 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 273 274 236 240 250 241 229 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.1 26.4 26.0 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 135 136 135 125 117 113 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 130 130 129 119 111 105 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.0 -54.5 -53.8 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -55.1 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 78 77 78 78 69 65 58 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 15 16 16 13 12 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -7 -12 -19 -27 -50 -66 -57 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 117 100 76 78 81 83 34 -6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 1 4 5 1 -2 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1491 1540 1591 1623 1658 1763 1922 2076 2082 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.3 14.5 15.8 16.8 17.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.8 31.4 32.0 32.4 32.8 33.9 35.4 36.8 38.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 7 9 9 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 17 11 9 6 1 0 0 1 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 7. 3. -3. -13. -21. -24. -26. -28. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.3 30.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152018 NADINE 10/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.80 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.57 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.56 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 18.2% 14.6% 9.9% 7.9% 11.8% 10.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 9.4% 3.5% 1.3% 0.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 9.7% 6.1% 3.8% 2.8% 4.4% 3.9% 0.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152018 NADINE 10/10/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 45 47 47 43 37 27 19 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 42 44 44 40 34 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 38 34 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT