* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL152018 10/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 43 43 36 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 43 43 36 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 42 41 37 31 25 19 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 10 11 8 16 23 26 36 45 44 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 3 3 8 13 10 5 5 0 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 277 288 274 248 257 249 237 227 235 234 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.5 27.1 26.0 26.5 26.9 27.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 138 138 138 129 125 113 118 123 126 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 134 133 133 124 118 105 110 115 118 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.6 -54.8 -54.4 -53.8 -54.4 -54.2 -54.9 -54.9 -55.4 -55.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 10 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 78 78 74 67 63 56 47 40 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 16 17 13 11 7 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 8 -2 -7 -13 -33 -61 -70 -62 -54 -50 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 116 132 103 82 85 89 47 1 -8 -6 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 0 3 1 5 2 0 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1460 1515 1572 1606 1642 1729 1847 1976 2111 2041 1925 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.9 12.4 13.6 14.9 16.1 17.1 17.8 18.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 30.3 30.9 31.6 32.1 32.5 33.5 34.7 35.9 37.2 38.9 41.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 22 17 12 9 4 1 0 0 1 3 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -2. -8. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -3. -6. -11. -15. -18. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 1. -6. -15. -23. -28. -29. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.7 30.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152018 NADINE 10/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.10 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.84 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.65 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.62 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 19.1% 15.3% 10.2% 8.0% 12.1% 11.0% 13.4% Logistic: 1.7% 8.9% 2.6% 0.9% 0.4% 1.2% 1.3% 0.9% Bayesian: 1.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 9.8% 6.0% 3.7% 2.8% 4.5% 4.2% 4.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152018 NADINE 10/09/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 43 43 36 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 40 33 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 35 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT