* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NADINE AL152018 10/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 43 45 47 43 35 28 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 43 45 47 43 35 28 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 39 42 44 45 47 45 38 31 25 20 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 5 7 12 14 15 19 21 33 45 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 4 0 0 7 12 10 3 4 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 243 257 263 268 250 265 241 237 232 240 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.3 26.8 25.7 26.8 27.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 138 139 138 137 127 121 110 122 125 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 133 135 135 133 132 121 114 102 115 119 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.0 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 80 80 80 78 76 71 68 62 53 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 13 14 16 14 11 9 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 18 9 0 -5 -20 -51 -77 -77 -67 -57 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 110 123 124 97 77 104 93 57 -7 -10 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -1 -1 0 1 7 5 4 0 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1415 1479 1546 1584 1624 1695 1798 1900 2011 2081 1921 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.4 11.8 13.0 14.2 15.4 16.7 17.4 17.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 29.7 30.4 31.2 31.7 32.2 33.1 34.2 35.2 36.2 37.9 40.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 10 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 22 22 16 11 6 2 1 0 1 2 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -5. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -14. -17. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 10. 12. 8. 0. -7. -17. -24. -26. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.3 29.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152018 NADINE 10/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.11 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.85 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.67 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.63 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 20.9% 16.7% 10.7% 8.4% 12.8% 12.8% 17.7% Logistic: 3.4% 17.6% 5.2% 1.6% 0.7% 3.5% 4.9% 3.4% Bayesian: 8.7% 10.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 6.1% 16.5% 7.8% 4.3% 3.1% 5.6% 6.0% 7.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152018 NADINE 10/09/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 42 43 45 47 43 35 28 18 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 37 38 40 42 38 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 36 32 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 29 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT