* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/30/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 38 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 38 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 43 41 38 35 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 23 24 29 38 57 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 9 14 16 16 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 264 250 238 238 248 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.5 23.4 21.7 19.6 18.7 16.9 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 99 91 84 82 78 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 90 84 79 77 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -53.0 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 38 36 33 29 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 22 20 14 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 -9 -28 -56 -81 -103 -114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 -1 -20 -12 -2 -4 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -15 -34 -59 -51 -26 -27 -82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 845 967 1141 1386 1636 909 360 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.4 42.6 43.8 45.1 46.4 48.5 49.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.5 42.3 39.1 35.1 31.1 21.8 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 27 26 29 31 32 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 28 CX,CY: 25/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. -2. -12. -22. -31. -39. -48. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -10. -19. -21. -23. -24. -24. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -11. -25. -46. -59. -70. -80. -89. -97.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 41.4 45.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/30/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.13 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.67 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 303.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.64 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 84.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/30/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/30/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 41 38 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 42 39 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT