* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/29/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 55 56 53 38 35 31 27 22 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 55 56 53 38 35 31 27 22 17 DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 52 52 48 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 10 11 15 17 22 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 1 0 15 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 293 284 287 288 254 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 25.9 25.4 24.0 23.6 20.6 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 114 105 102 88 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 107 105 97 95 82 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 41 40 42 40 33 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 27 28 28 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 44 35 44 21 -15 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 56 58 46 47 -14 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 24 12 3 -21 -74 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 872 905 878 806 863 1264 1454 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.4 38.1 38.8 40.1 41.4 44.6 47.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.0 55.8 52.7 48.9 45.2 37.0 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 26 29 31 33 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 21 CX,CY: 21/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 3. -12. -15. -19. -23. -28. -33. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 37.4 59.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/29/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.68 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.65 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.77 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.22 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.39 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 386.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.56 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 45.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 16.5% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 2.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 6.2% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/29/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/29/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 53 55 56 53 38 35 31 27 22 17 DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 50 52 53 50 35 32 28 24 19 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 49 46 31 28 24 20 15 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 38 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT