* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/28/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 54 53 50 49 49 44 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 57 54 53 50 49 49 44 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 57 55 53 51 50 52 49 39 27 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 9 7 9 5 15 21 29 43 57 69 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 11 5 0 1 -4 1 12 18 28 23 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 337 335 314 309 327 243 244 228 232 226 255 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 26.0 26.2 26.3 26.7 26.1 24.3 20.0 18.9 16.2 14.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 114 117 119 124 119 106 87 85 79 77 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 95 99 102 108 107 97 82 81 76 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -50.4 -50.8 -49.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 -0.3 -0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 50 47 45 44 39 36 30 24 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 30 29 29 26 26 29 30 24 10 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 15 35 72 59 50 49 35 -33 -50 6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -31 -9 13 34 2 5 28 62 -24 -27 -22 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -1 -6 -21 -38 -29 -57 -85 -212 -186 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 376 468 528 603 692 752 722 688 1232 1069 93 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.8 36.9 36.9 37.0 37.0 38.1 40.2 42.9 46.2 49.4 52.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.3 70.1 68.9 67.0 65.1 60.1 53.9 46.2 36.7 24.9 11.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 15 18 23 29 35 40 44 44 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 8 1 3 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -9. -19. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -6. -6. -15. -34. -44. -45. -44. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -11. -11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -10. -11. -11. -16. -35. -69. -96. -99.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 36.8 71.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/28/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.75 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.03 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.65 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.10 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.15 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 346.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.60 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 21.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 15.3% 12.9% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 3.1% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.2% 5.0% 3.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/28/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/28/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 57 54 53 50 49 49 44 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 56 55 52 51 51 46 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 52 51 51 46 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 47 46 46 41 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT