* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/27/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 60 55 53 49 50 47 37 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 63 60 55 53 49 50 47 37 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 65 62 59 57 54 55 55 49 38 28 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 16 7 4 5 17 21 27 52 72 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 8 6 5 0 5 9 21 17 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 310 336 328 267 244 221 243 218 230 238 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.6 26.1 26.3 26.7 26.0 21.5 21.2 16.7 14.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 109 109 114 118 124 119 92 92 80 77 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 90 91 96 100 110 109 87 87 77 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.0 -50.4 -50.6 -50.5 -50.5 -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -49.9 -47.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.6 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 58 56 49 43 40 37 31 27 31 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 36 35 32 31 28 30 29 27 21 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -13 6 23 37 82 92 70 29 22 97 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 -9 -30 -5 18 4 32 39 29 -9 -2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 3 -2 -5 1 -10 -9 -4 -132 -171 -308 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 309 353 382 469 533 679 715 608 856 1563 660 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.0 36.4 36.7 36.8 36.8 37.3 38.9 41.3 44.4 48.2 52.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.4 71.8 71.3 70.1 69.0 64.9 59.2 51.8 42.6 31.8 20.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 9 12 20 27 34 39 43 42 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 2 4 5 0 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 4. 2. -3. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -4. -6. -11. -11. -14. -17. -26. -44. -44. -44. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -10. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -12. -16. -15. -18. -28. -49. -85. -88. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 36.0 72.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/27/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.02 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 324.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.62 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 19.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/27/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/27/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 60 55 53 49 50 47 37 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 61 56 54 50 51 48 38 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 56 54 50 51 48 38 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 49 50 47 37 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT