* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/27/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 54 51 48 42 40 41 38 37 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 57 54 51 48 42 40 41 38 37 22 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 58 56 54 52 48 46 47 48 45 37 29 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 20 16 17 7 6 11 21 16 44 76 70 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -2 1 4 5 4 3 10 14 17 21 12 SHEAR DIR 296 314 306 302 313 326 252 201 201 217 217 237 249 SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.8 26.1 26.4 26.6 25.7 18.5 19.5 15.2 14.0 POT. INT. (KT) 116 114 112 110 109 114 120 124 117 83 86 77 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 93 91 90 90 95 103 112 108 79 81 74 72 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.3 -50.5 -49.8 -50.0 -50.6 -50.5 -50.3 -50.3 -50.6 -50.3 -49.2 -46.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 6 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 59 58 57 48 40 38 37 26 17 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 38 38 37 36 34 33 31 30 30 24 12 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 21 13 3 -1 23 54 114 83 72 21 38 11 200 MB DIV 7 11 11 3 -30 25 19 20 41 59 -6 -35 -48 700-850 TADV 8 5 5 5 4 1 1 -6 -9 24 -62 -159 -188 LAND (KM) 292 288 290 311 327 430 584 668 711 582 1022 1378 651 LAT (DEG N) 34.6 35.0 35.4 35.7 36.0 36.4 36.7 37.7 39.6 42.4 46.2 49.9 53.6 LONG(DEG W) 72.9 72.8 72.7 72.4 72.2 70.9 68.1 63.4 57.0 48.9 39.5 29.7 19.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 8 15 23 30 36 38 37 35 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 6 0 0 0 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. 2. -2. -13. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -15. -23. -40. -40. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -18. -20. -19. -22. -23. -38. -69. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 34.6 72.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/27/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.46 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.03 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.61 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.03 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.14 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 281.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.66 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 8.7% 7.9% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 3.1% 2.7% 2.3% 999.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/27/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/27/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 57 54 51 48 42 40 41 38 37 22 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 56 53 50 44 42 43 40 39 24 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 50 44 42 43 40 39 24 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 47 41 39 40 37 36 21 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT