* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIA AL152017 09/26/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 59 56 54 49 42 41 42 41 28 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 62 59 56 54 49 42 41 42 41 28 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 63 61 60 59 55 51 49 49 49 43 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 13 15 19 16 8 5 13 23 30 48 90 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 -1 3 4 6 6 20 11 21 15 SHEAR DIR 312 309 293 307 313 318 330 273 190 209 219 229 230 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.9 26.3 26.4 26.6 25.5 18.1 19.3 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 118 116 113 110 116 120 124 116 82 85 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 98 97 95 93 91 97 104 111 107 78 80 73 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.7 -49.8 -50.1 -50.4 -50.1 -50.6 -50.2 -50.2 -49.9 -50.2 -50.0 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.9 1.6 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 6 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 63 62 62 61 58 57 48 40 37 34 23 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 40 39 38 38 38 38 34 33 33 33 27 18 33 850 MB ENV VOR 49 53 53 27 15 4 24 50 98 101 109 99 -13 200 MB DIV 18 13 1 -1 15 -20 27 10 57 56 36 -6 -23 700-850 TADV 21 9 3 6 5 0 1 5 1 15 3 -53 -142 LAND (KM) 346 316 291 282 277 332 451 604 657 695 578 1002 1461 LAT (DEG N) 33.3 33.8 34.2 34.7 35.1 35.8 36.0 36.6 37.8 39.8 42.6 46.1 50.1 LONG(DEG W) 73.1 73.1 73.1 73.0 72.9 72.2 70.8 67.9 63.4 56.9 48.6 39.8 31.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 5 4 5 9 15 23 30 35 36 35 HEAT CONTENT 15 10 13 10 1 0 3 7 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -18. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 0. -5. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -11. -13. -13. -22. -34. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -16. -23. -24. -23. -24. -37. -55. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 33.3 73.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152017 MARIA 09/26/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.53 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.50 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.18 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 318.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.63 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 7.9% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 1.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 3.1% 2.6% 0.1% 999.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152017 MARIA 09/26/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152017 MARIA 09/26/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 62 59 56 54 49 42 41 42 41 28 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 61 58 56 51 44 43 44 43 30 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 58 56 51 44 43 44 43 30 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 48 41 40 41 40 27 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT